Failing States

The Development of Youth Unemployment as a Potential Early Warning Indicator

#GIDSresearch 1/2026 | 30. März 2026 | Autor: Dr. Wolfgang Müller | Foto: Bundeswehr

The question of how to identify failing states at an early point in time is not only an important one, but an old one as well. Several indices, often involving a lot of categories and even more indicators, were designed for this purpose. Soon, these indices became subject to criticism: they were deemed too complex, offering too few insights for the tremendous amount of work going into them. And finally, even well-coordinated interventions across all categories to prevent states from failing have proven futile in too many cases, as happened recently in Afghanistan. This paper pursues the question whether there is sufficient plausibility and reason to allow for a reduction of this complexity by looking at just one indicator – youth unemployment. This paper intends to kick off further research using methods like regression analysis.

About the author: Dr. Wolfgang Müller is a Research Fellow at the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies, specialising in the subject areas of China and Total Defence. Prior to working for the GIDS, he occupied several national and international leadership positions, including in the German public administration. He holds an MBA and a PhD in Economics from the Bundeswehr University Hamburg / University of the Bundeswehr Munich. During his military career, he served as an Air Force officer with assignments to NATO, the UN and in military intelligence.