Re-Thinking War in the Baltic Sea

#GIDSstatement 1/2025 I 15. Januar 2025 I Autor: Julian Pawlak I Foto: Bundeswehr / Marcel Kröncke

This paper is a result of the Kiel International Seapower Symposium 2024 and its adjunct expert workshop themed (Re-)Learning War: Lessons from the Black Sea. It examines the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Black Sea and derives strategic implications for the Baltic Sea – notably for maritime security, naval strategy, and NATO operations. Starting from an assessment of the realities in the Black Sea, it evaluates the necessity for updated defence strategies, highlights the changing threat environment, and explores the integration of uncrewed systems and asymmetric tactics. By analysing recent developments, this brief study provides some concise, actionable insights for further examination to enhance NATO’s defence in a confined sea like the Baltic.

About the author: Julian Pawlak is a Research Associate at the Helmut Schmidt University/Bundeswehr University Hamburg and the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies. As academic coordinator, he heads the university’s interdisciplinary Research Network on Maritime Security. He was a Visiting Fellow at the Swedish Defence University’s Department of War Studies and Military History in 2023, and has been a Jr. Associate Fellow at the NATO Defense College since 2024.