Tactical Fruit Flies and a Strategic Petri Dish

The Black Sea as Testing Ground for the Future of Maritime Conflict

#GIDSstatement 6/2025 I 25. Juni 2025 I Autoren: Jonathan D. Caverley und Michael B. Petersen I Foto: navy.mil.gov.ua

Ukraine’s naval war turns drones into fruit flies and the Black Sea into a petri dish. This paper probes the experiment’s external validity, arguing that while tactics may not travel outside of this theater, strategic lessons have emerged on the role of land-based missiles and wartime commerce without sea control.

About the authors: Jonathan D. Caverley is Professor of Strategic and Operational Research at the United States Naval War College. He is currently interim Director of the College’s Press. Michael B. Petersen is Principal Research Scientist with the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses. Previously, he served as senior advisor to the Chief of Naval Operations and founding director of the Russia Maritime Studies Institute at the United States Naval War College.